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Wednesday, September 9, 1998

Theme 2

"Early warning systems for the mitigation of geological hazards"

Keynote and Invited Lectures

09:00 - 12:00, Main Hall

09:00
Keynote Lecture

"Earthquake disasters: prediction, prevention and early warning"

Cinna Lomnitz, Mexico

09:45 - 10:00
Coffee Break

Invited Lectures

10:00
Earthquake early warning systems: current status and perspectives
William H. K. Lee; USA and Juan M. Espinosa-Aranda; Mexico

10:30
Tsunami early warning systems
Michael Blackford; USA

11:00
Volcano monitoring and eruption warnings
Robert I. Tilling; USA

11:30
Early warning systems related to mountain hazards
Hans Kienholz; Switzerland

12:00 - 14:00
Lunch Break

Theme 1

Session 1.3

"Early warning systems related to drought and mitigation of famine"

Convenor: T. E. Downing
(University of Oxford; United Kingdom)

Wednesday, September 9, 1998

14:00 - 17:30

Oral Presentations

14:00
The global information and early warning system of FAO
A. Rashid; FAO (Invited Lecture)

14:30
Early warning and geography: Space, time and user needs (examples from famine early warning)
C. Kelly; USA (Invited Lecture)

14:50
Early and dynamic warning: An integrated approach to drought management
B. Narasimhan; India (Invited Lecture)

15:10
Prediction of African rainfall and household food security
T. E. Downing; United Kingdom (Invited Lecture)

15:30
Contribution of climate system monitoring and prediction in early warning systems for the reduction of natural disasters
B. J. Garanganga; Zimbabwe

Poster Presentations

15:45
Early warning systems and food supply in Western Africa (in the Sahel)
B. Hoffmann; Germany

15:50
Rationale and aspects of regional co-operation on natural disaster monitoring in East Africa
A. Rahman Khider Hassan; Kenya

15:55
Drought monitoring on the base of remote sensing data
A. Kleschenko; Russia

16:00 - 16:30 Coffee Break and Poster Exhibition

Oral Presentations (continued)

16:30
Agrometeorology in Hungary
A. Bussay; Hungary

16:45
Cultural and political obstacles for an early warning of the Aral Sea disaster
W. Ahrens; Uzbekistan

17:00
Incorporating market behaviour in early warning and food information systems: Case study from the semi-arid zone in Sudan
A. S. Mustafa; Malaysia

17:15
A review of early warning: The 1992 drought disaster in Zimbabwe
M. S. Pawadyira, S. Ndlovu; Zimbabwe

17:30
Sudan Early Warning System as a tool for disaster preparedness
A. M. A. Wahab; Sudan

17:45
Summary discussion

Session 1.4

"Monitoring and early warnings related to the El Niño phenomenon"

Convenor: H. Grassl (WMO)

Wednesday, September 9, 1998

14:00 - 15:30

Oral Presentations

14:00
Monitoring and early warnings related to the El Niño phenomenon
H. Grassl; WMO (Invited Lecture)

14:30
Global seasonal forecasting
D. Anderson; United Kingdom

14:45
Operational seasonal prediction in Australia
N. Plummer; Australia

15:00
Towards operational prediction of El Nino by a coupled atmosphere-ocean model
H. Kondo; Japan

15:15
Climatic forecast of natural disasters and the calculation of economic damage
E. Akentyeva, N. Kobysheva; Russia

Session 1.5

"The 1997 Oder River flood and the implementation of early warning in an international environment"

Convenor: W. Rosenthal
(GKSS Research Centre, Germany)

Wednesday, September 9, 1998

15:30 - 18:00

Oral Presentations

15:30
The Oder River flood in Summer 1997 from the perspective of the State of Brandenburg
H. Niesche; Germany (Invited Lecture)

16:00 - 16:30
Coffee Break

16:30
The flooding event of Odra river – measurements and calculations of the impact in the Odra estuary
W. Rosenthal; Germany (Invited Lecture)

16:50
Application of satellite and airborne remote sensing data for a flood risk information management system (FRIMS) for the Oder river region
H. Weichelt, K.-H. Marek; Germany

17:05
Hydrological simulations for the Odra flood event 1997
C. Ruhe, E. Raschke; Germany

17:20
Improvement of early warning by integration of warning and forecasting services
Iv. Obrusnik, M. Wolek, J. Kubát; Czech Republic

17:35
Introduction to the poster and video documentation of the Oder River flood
B. Koppe, M. W. Jürgens; Germany

17:40
Summary discussion.

Session 1.6

"Early warning systems for severe weather phenomena in middle and high latitudes "

Convenor: S. Mildner
(DWD German Weather Service, Germany)

Wednesday, September 9, 1998

14:00 - 16:30

Oral Presentations

14:00
Early warning and forecasting system for the reduction of serious atmosphere-hydrosphere disasters
Wang Ang-Sheng ; China

Responding to the threat of hydro-meteorological hazards: Some organisational and economic aspects related to the early warning system in the Ukraine
O. Karpova; Ukraine

14:30
Early warning systems for the reduction of natural disasters in Georgia
N. Beradze; Georgia

14:45
Services from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute can reduce the effects of disasters - both natural and man-made
J. Saltbones, O. Nielsen; Norway

15:00
Methods to predict severe weather
G. Tetzlaff; Germany

15:15
The use of the AARI´s hydro-meteorological Information system for early warning of natural disasters in the north and north-west of Russia
V. Smirnov, V. Grischenko, I. Frolov; Russia

Poster Presentations

15:30
Moscow Weather Radar Network for meteorological hazard monitoring.
Y. V. Melnichuk; Russia

15:33
Early warning system in the Portuguese Weather Forecast Centre: Present and Future T. Abrantes; Portugal

15:36
Warnings about dangerous marine meteorological phenomena potentially leading to emergencies: the experience of the Russian Marine Forecasting Service
Z. K. Abouziarov; Russia

15:39
Meteorological risks in navigation in the western part of the Black Sea
B. C. Chiotoroiu; Roumania

15:42
Warning of storm surges on the Caspian Sea coastal zone of the Kazakhstan Republic
S. Shivareva, P. Plekhanov; Kazakhstan

15:45
Early warning system in the Azerbaijan Republic
S. Khalilov; Azerbaijan

15:48
Possibility of medium-term forecasts of strong winds
M. Zdereva; Russia

15:51
Contribution of intra-cloud lightning monitoring for improving the nowcasting of severe thunderstorm precipitations
P. Richard; France

15:54
Summary discussion

16:00 -16:30 Coffee Break and poster exhibition.

Theme 2

Session 2.3

"Early warning systems for tsunami"

Convenor: M. E. Blackford
(International Tsunami Information Centre, Hawaii, USA)

Wednesday, September 9, 1998

14:00 - 18:30

Oral Presentations

14:00
U.S. Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program
E. Bernard; USA

14:15
Tsunami warning system in Japan
K. Doi; Japan

14:30
Advances in the Chilean tsunami warning system and application for the TIME project on the Chilean Coast
D. Gutierrez; Chile

14:45
A tsunami warning system in the south-west Aegean Sea, Greece
G. A. Papadopoulos; Greece

15:00
The tsunami warning system in Nicaragua
W. Strauch; Nicaragua

Session 2.1
(continued from Tuesday)

"Early warning systems for earthquakes"

Convenor: J. M. Espinosa-Aranda
(C.I.R.E.S., Mexico)

Wednesday, September 9, 1998

15:15 - 16:00

Poster Presentations

15:15
A rapid determination network in Turkey: Towards an early warning system in the Marmara region.
N. Turkelli, A. Pinar, S. Ince; Turkey

15:18
Real-time earthquake magnitude assessment from statistical analysis of strong-motion data.
G. Grecksch; Germany

15:21
Project of earthquake early warning system for Armenia.
S. Yu. Balassanian, A. H. Martirosyan, V. G. Arzoumanian; Armenia

15:24
The imminent prediction of the group of strong earthquakes in Jiashi.
Jun Zhi Li, Zhen-Qiu Ren, Xiang-Ning Huang; China

15:27
Evaluation for short-term and annual prediction of earthquakes. (ESTAPE)
J. J. Chu; USA & J.-M. Col; UN-DESA

15:30
Expert system for earthquake medium-term, short-term and immediate forecasting.
Y. Zhu; China

15:33
Seismic Alert System of Mexico City.
J. M. Espinosa-Aranda, A. Jimenez, G. Ibarrola, F. Alcantar, Aguilar, M. Inostroza, S. Maldonado; Mexico

15:36
Earthquake early warning in the Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana campus, Iztapalapa.
Delfino L. Hernandez; Mexico

15:39
Seismic Alert System in Mexico City: A sociological perspective.
E. Arjonilla; Mexico

15:42
Potential for the installation of a system in northern Costa Rica for early warning to the capital city of San Jose, from large subduction earthquakes under the Nicoya Peninsula.
M. Protti, V. Gonzalez, E. Malavassi, E. Hernandez, F. Guendel; Costa Rica

International polygon on earthquake monitoring in Garni, Armenia.
R. Gevorkyan, L. Hackverdyan; Armenia

15:47
Seismic surveillance in Portugal.
M. L. Senos; Portugal

15:50
Earthquake monitoring and early warning systems in Azerbaijan.
O. Babazade, H. Bensaad; Azerbaijan

15:52
Can plate motion survey by GPS measurements be considered as an alert system in earthquake occurrence? A. Ayadi; Algeria

15:55
Geodetic network data and deformation survey as a preliminary warning system.
F. Ousadou-Ayadi; Algeria

15:58
The Algerian Seismological Telemetred Network (ASTN) case study of the Rouina earthquake of January 19th 1992 M=5.2: Could we consider the ASTN recordings as a warning system?
H. Benhallou, A. Ayadi; Algeria

16:00 - 16:30 Coffee Break and poster exhibition

Session 2.4

"Early Warning Systems for Mountain Hazards"

Convenor: H. Kienholz
(University of Bern, Switzerland)

Wednesday, September 9, 1998

16:30 - 18:00

Oral Presentations

16:30
Introduction by the Chairman.
H. Kienholz; Switzerland

16:35
Avalanche Warning Switzerland 2000: A new concept and ist implementation.
T. Russi, W. Amman; Switzerland

16:55
Movement studies to forecast the time of breaking off of ice and rock masses.
M. Funk, M. Wegemann, A. Flotron, H. Keusen; Switzerland

17:15
Contribution to the reduction of geology-related natural risks in the West Cameroon highlands (Central Africa). F. M. Tchoua , J. P. Tchouankoue, A. D. Kagou, D. G. Nkouathlo,G. Kouepouo, S. Tetsopgang; Cameroon

17:25 NN

17:40
The use of rainfall radar for the prediction of shallow landslides and debris flows.
P. Gamma, M. Zimmermann, S. Liener, P. Mani; Switzerland

Poster Presentations

17:50
The experience with debris-flow preventive measures in the Republic of Kazakhstan.
V. Kravchuk, N. V. Popov; Kazakhstan

17:53
Landslides in Kenya: The need to set up early warning systems.
J. Ogola; Kenya

17:56
Necessity of early warning systems in Nepal.
M. B. Poudyal Chhetri; Nepal

Open Session

"Contributions related to Disaster Management, Emergency and Social Response with respect to Early Warnings"

Convenor: J. Zschau
(GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam, Germany)

Wednesday, September 9, 1998

16:30 - 18:00

Oral Presentations

16:30
Benefits of early warning from the viewpoint of the Insurance industry.
G. Berz, W. Kron, A. Smolka; Germany

16:45
The interaction and co-operation between Russia and NIC in the area of preventing emergency situations of technogenic and natural character.
N. Makhutov, V. Zatsarinnyi; Russia

17:00 NN

17:15
Systems and problems of early warning in Germany
H. Schöttler

17:30
Co-operation in disaster mitigation in Central Europe
J. Nemec; Czech Republic

Poster Presentations

17:45
Early warning system in the Sunda Strait area, Indonesia.
H. S. Naryanto, A. Rofiq Hadi; Indonesia

17:48
Natural risks in Albania and the role of related warning systems for the reduction of natural disasters.
M. Hoti, S. Axhemi; Albania

17:51
Effects of sudden onset disasters on the population.
J. Mwami; Uganda

17:54
Gender, age and social class in psychological work in disaster situations.
J. Manuel Salas Calvo; Costa Rica

17:57
Psychological intervention in disaster situations.
L. Saénz Segreda; Costa Rica

Theme 3

Forum:
"Bringing Early Warning to the Market"

Convenors:
E. Langelüddecke
(Daimler-Benz Aerospace)

Wednesday, September 9, 1998

19:30 - 21:30, Seminaris Seehotel, Potsdam

Note:
This Forum is sponsored by the industry and accompanied by a buffet style dinner at Seminaris Seehotel. The detailed programme of this event will be communicated during the conference.

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