Wednesday, September 9, 1998
|
Theme 2
"Early warning systems for the mitigation of geological hazards"
Keynote and Invited Lectures
09:00 - 12:00, Main Hall
09:00
Keynote Lecture
09:45 - 10:00
Coffee Break
Invited Lectures
10:00
Earthquake early warning systems: current status and perspectives
William H. K. Lee; USA and Juan M. Espinosa-Aranda; Mexico
10:30
Tsunami early warning systems
Michael Blackford; USA
11:00
Volcano monitoring and eruption warnings
Robert I. Tilling; USA
11:30
Early warning systems related to mountain hazards
Hans Kienholz; Switzerland
12:00 - 14:00
Lunch Break
Theme 1
Session 1.3
"Early warning systems related to drought and mitigation of famine"
Convenor: T. E. Downing
(University of Oxford; United Kingdom)
Wednesday, September 9, 1998
14:00 - 17:30
Oral Presentations
14:00
The global information and early warning system of FAO
A. Rashid; FAO (Invited Lecture)
14:30
Early warning and geography: Space, time and user needs
(examples from famine early warning)
C. Kelly; USA (Invited Lecture)
14:50
Early and dynamic warning: An integrated approach to drought management
B. Narasimhan; India (Invited Lecture)
15:10
Prediction of African rainfall and household food security
T. E. Downing; United Kingdom (Invited Lecture)
15:30
Contribution of climate system monitoring and prediction in early warning systems for the reduction of natural disasters
B. J. Garanganga; Zimbabwe
Poster Presentations
15:45
Early warning systems and food supply in Western Africa (in the Sahel)
B. Hoffmann; Germany
15:50
Rationale and aspects of regional co-operation on natural disaster monitoring in East Africa
A. Rahman Khider Hassan; Kenya
15:55
Drought monitoring on the base of remote sensing data
A. Kleschenko; Russia
16:00 - 16:30 Coffee Break and Poster Exhibition
Oral Presentations (continued)
16:30
Agrometeorology in Hungary
A. Bussay; Hungary
16:45
Cultural and political obstacles for an early warning of the Aral Sea disaster
W. Ahrens; Uzbekistan
17:00
Incorporating market behaviour in early warning and food information systems: Case study from the semi-arid zone in Sudan
A. S. Mustafa; Malaysia
17:15
A review of early warning: The 1992 drought disaster in Zimbabwe
M. S. Pawadyira, S. Ndlovu; Zimbabwe
17:30
Sudan Early Warning System as a tool for disaster preparedness
A. M. A. Wahab; Sudan
17:45
Summary discussion
Session 1.4
"Monitoring and early warnings related to the El Niño phenomenon"
Convenor: H. Grassl (WMO)
Wednesday, September 9, 1998
14:00 - 15:30
Oral Presentations
14:00
Monitoring and early warnings related to the El Niño phenomenon
H. Grassl; WMO (Invited Lecture)
14:30
Global seasonal forecasting
D. Anderson; United Kingdom
14:45
Operational seasonal prediction in Australia
N. Plummer; Australia
15:00
Towards operational prediction of El Nino by a coupled atmosphere-ocean model
H. Kondo; Japan
15:15
Climatic forecast of natural disasters and the calculation of economic damage
E. Akentyeva, N. Kobysheva; Russia
Session 1.5
"The 1997 Oder River flood and the implementation of early warning in an international environment"
Convenor: W. Rosenthal
(GKSS Research Centre, Germany)
Wednesday, September 9, 1998
15:30 - 18:00
Oral Presentations
15:30
The Oder River flood in Summer 1997 from the perspective of the State of Brandenburg
H. Niesche; Germany (Invited Lecture)
16:00 - 16:30
Coffee Break
16:30
The flooding event of Odra river – measurements and calculations of the impact in the Odra estuary
W. Rosenthal; Germany (Invited Lecture)
16:50
Application of satellite and airborne remote sensing data for a flood risk information management system (FRIMS) for the Oder river region
H. Weichelt, K.-H. Marek; Germany
17:05
Hydrological simulations for the Odra flood event 1997
C. Ruhe, E. Raschke; Germany
17:20
Improvement of early warning by integration of warning and forecasting services
Iv. Obrusnik, M. Wolek, J. Kubát; Czech Republic
17:35
Introduction to the poster and video documentation of the Oder River flood
B. Koppe, M. W. Jürgens; Germany
17:40
Summary discussion.
Session 1.6
"Early warning systems for severe weather phenomena in middle and high latitudes "
Convenor: S. Mildner
(DWD German Weather Service, Germany)
Wednesday, September 9, 1998
14:00 - 16:30
Oral Presentations
14:00
Early warning and forecasting system for the reduction of serious atmosphere-hydrosphere disasters
Wang Ang-Sheng ; China
Responding to the threat of hydro-meteorological hazards: Some organisational and economic aspects related to the early warning system in the Ukraine
O. Karpova; Ukraine
14:30
Early warning systems for the reduction of natural disasters in Georgia
N. Beradze; Georgia
14:45
Services from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute can reduce the effects of disasters - both natural and man-made
J. Saltbones, O. Nielsen; Norway
15:00
Methods to predict severe weather
G. Tetzlaff; Germany
15:15
The use of the AARI´s hydro-meteorological Information system for early warning of natural disasters in the north and north-west of Russia
V. Smirnov, V. Grischenko, I. Frolov; Russia
Poster Presentations
15:30
Moscow Weather Radar Network for meteorological hazard monitoring.
Y. V. Melnichuk; Russia
15:33
Early warning system in the Portuguese Weather Forecast Centre: Present and Future
T. Abrantes; Portugal
15:36
Warnings about dangerous marine meteorological phenomena potentially leading to emergencies: the experience of the Russian Marine Forecasting Service
Z. K. Abouziarov; Russia
15:39
Meteorological risks in navigation in the western part of the Black Sea
B. C. Chiotoroiu; Roumania
15:42
Warning of storm surges on the Caspian Sea coastal zone of the Kazakhstan Republic
S. Shivareva, P. Plekhanov; Kazakhstan
15:45
Early warning system in the Azerbaijan Republic
S. Khalilov; Azerbaijan
15:48
Possibility of medium-term forecasts of strong winds
M. Zdereva; Russia
15:51
Contribution of intra-cloud lightning monitoring for improving the nowcasting of severe thunderstorm precipitations
P. Richard; France
15:54
Summary discussion
16:00 -16:30 Coffee Break and poster exhibition.
Theme 2
Session 2.3
"Early warning systems for tsunami"
Convenor: M. E. Blackford
(International Tsunami Information Centre,
Hawaii, USA)
Wednesday, September 9, 1998
14:00 - 18:30
Oral Presentations
14:00
U.S. Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program
E. Bernard; USA
14:15
Tsunami warning system in Japan
K. Doi; Japan
14:30
Advances in the Chilean tsunami warning system and application for the TIME project on the Chilean Coast
D. Gutierrez; Chile
14:45
A tsunami warning system in the south-west Aegean Sea, Greece
G. A. Papadopoulos; Greece
15:00
The tsunami warning system in Nicaragua
W. Strauch; Nicaragua
Session 2.1
(continued from Tuesday)
"Early warning systems for earthquakes"
Convenor: J. M. Espinosa-Aranda
(C.I.R.E.S., Mexico)
Wednesday, September 9, 1998
15:15 - 16:00
Poster Presentations
15:15
A rapid determination network in Turkey: Towards an early warning system in the Marmara region. N. Turkelli, A. Pinar, S. Ince; Turkey
15:18
Real-time earthquake magnitude assessment from statistical analysis of strong-motion data.
G. Grecksch; Germany
15:21
Project of earthquake early warning system for Armenia.
S. Yu. Balassanian, A. H. Martirosyan, V. G. Arzoumanian; Armenia
15:24
The imminent prediction of the group of strong earthquakes in Jiashi.
Jun Zhi Li, Zhen-Qiu Ren, Xiang-Ning Huang; China
15:27
Evaluation for short-term and annual prediction of earthquakes. (ESTAPE)
J. J. Chu; USA & J.-M. Col; UN-DESA
15:30
Expert system for earthquake medium-term, short-term and immediate forecasting.
Y. Zhu; China
15:33
Seismic Alert System of Mexico City.
J. M. Espinosa-Aranda, A. Jimenez, G. Ibarrola, F. Alcantar, Aguilar, M. Inostroza, S. Maldonado; Mexico
15:36
Earthquake early warning in the Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana campus, Iztapalapa.
Delfino L. Hernandez; Mexico
15:39
Seismic Alert System in Mexico City: A sociological perspective.
E. Arjonilla; Mexico
15:42
Potential for the installation of a system in northern Costa Rica for early warning to the capital city of San Jose, from large subduction earthquakes under the Nicoya Peninsula.
M. Protti, V. Gonzalez, E. Malavassi, E. Hernandez, F. Guendel; Costa Rica
International polygon on earthquake monitoring in Garni, Armenia.
R. Gevorkyan, L. Hackverdyan; Armenia
15:47
Seismic surveillance in Portugal.
M. L. Senos; Portugal
15:50
Earthquake monitoring and early warning systems in Azerbaijan.
O. Babazade, H. Bensaad; Azerbaijan
15:52
Can plate motion survey by GPS measurements be considered as an alert system in earthquake occurrence?
A. Ayadi; Algeria
15:55
Geodetic network data and deformation survey as a preliminary warning system.
F. Ousadou-Ayadi; Algeria
15:58
The Algerian Seismological Telemetred Network (ASTN) case study of the Rouina earthquake of January 19th 1992 M=5.2: Could we consider the ASTN recordings as a warning system?
H. Benhallou, A. Ayadi; Algeria
16:00 - 16:30 Coffee Break and poster exhibition
Session 2.4
"Early Warning Systems for Mountain Hazards"
Convenor: H. Kienholz
(University of Bern, Switzerland)
Wednesday, September 9, 1998
16:30 - 18:00
Oral Presentations
16:30
Introduction by the Chairman.
H. Kienholz; Switzerland
16:35
Avalanche Warning Switzerland 2000: A new concept and ist implementation.
T. Russi, W. Amman; Switzerland
16:55
Movement studies to forecast the time of breaking off of ice and rock masses.
M. Funk, M. Wegemann, A. Flotron, H. Keusen; Switzerland
17:15
Contribution to the reduction of geology-related natural risks in the West Cameroon highlands (Central Africa).
F. M. Tchoua , J. P. Tchouankoue, A. D. Kagou, D. G. Nkouathlo,G. Kouepouo, S. Tetsopgang; Cameroon
17:25 NN
17:40
The use of rainfall radar for the prediction of shallow landslides and debris flows.
P. Gamma, M. Zimmermann, S. Liener, P. Mani; Switzerland
Poster Presentations
17:50
The experience with debris-flow preventive measures in the Republic of Kazakhstan.
V. Kravchuk, N. V. Popov; Kazakhstan
17:53
Landslides in Kenya: The need to set up early warning systems.
J. Ogola; Kenya
17:56
Necessity of early warning systems in Nepal.
M. B. Poudyal Chhetri; Nepal
Open Session
"Contributions related to Disaster Management, Emergency and Social Response with respect to Early Warnings"
Convenor: J. Zschau
(GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam, Germany)
Wednesday, September 9, 1998
16:30 - 18:00
Oral Presentations
16:30
Benefits of early warning from the viewpoint of the Insurance industry.
G. Berz, W. Kron, A. Smolka; Germany
16:45
The interaction and co-operation between Russia and NIC in the area of preventing emergency situations of technogenic and natural character.
N. Makhutov, V. Zatsarinnyi; Russia
17:00 NN
17:15
Systems and problems of early warning in Germany
H. Schöttler
17:30
Co-operation in disaster mitigation in Central Europe
J. Nemec; Czech Republic
Poster Presentations
17:45
Early warning system in the Sunda Strait area, Indonesia.
H. S. Naryanto, A. Rofiq Hadi; Indonesia
17:48
Natural risks in Albania and the role of related warning systems for the reduction of natural disasters.
M. Hoti, S. Axhemi; Albania
17:51
Effects of sudden onset disasters on the population.
J. Mwami; Uganda
17:54
Gender, age and social class in psychological work in disaster situations.
J. Manuel Salas Calvo; Costa Rica
17:57
Psychological intervention in disaster situations.
L. Saénz Segreda; Costa Rica
Theme 3
Forum:
"Bringing Early Warning to the Market"
Convenors:
E. Langelüddecke
(Daimler-Benz Aerospace)
Wednesday, September 9, 1998
19:30 - 21:30, Seminaris Seehotel, Potsdam
Note:
This Forum is sponsored by the industry and accompanied by a buffet style dinner at Seminaris Seehotel. The detailed programme of this event will be communicated during the conference.
Monday |
Tuesday |
Wednesday |
Thursday |
Friday
|